Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Dynamic Panel Data Estimates.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred. METHODS: We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate. RESULTS: Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts.

Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic?

BACKGROUND: Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus carry differential risks to public health. The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, first identified in Botswana on November 11, 2021, has spread globally faster than any previous variant of concern. Understanding the transmissibility of Omicron is vital in the development of public health policy. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to compare SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks driven by Omicron to those driven by prior variants of concern in terms of both the speed and magnitude of an outbreak. METHODS: We analyzed trends in outbreaks by variant of concern with validated surveillance metrics in several southern African countries. The region offers an ideal setting for a natural experiment given that most outbreaks thus far have been driven primarily by a single variant at a time. With a daily longitudinal data set of new infections, total vaccinations, and cumulative infections in countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated how the emergence of Omicron has altered the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. We used the Arellano-Bond method to estimate regression coefficients from a dynamic panel model, in which new infections are a function of infections yesterday and last week. We controlled for vaccinations and prior infections in the population. To test whether Omicron has changed the average trajectory of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, we included an interaction between an indicator variable for the emergence of Omicron and lagged infections. RESULTS: The observed Omicron outbreaks in this study reach the outbreak threshold within 5-10 days after first detection, whereas other variants of concern have taken at least 14 days and up to as many as 35 days. The Omicron outbreaks also reach peak rates of new cases that are roughly 1.5-2 times those of prior variants of concern. Dynamic panel regression estimates confirm Omicron has created a statistically significant shift in viral spread. CONCLUSIONS: The transmissibility of Omicron is markedly higher than prior variants of concern. At the population level, the Omicron outbreaks occurred more quickly and with larger magnitude, despite substantial increases in vaccinations and prior infections, which should have otherwise reduced susceptibility to new infections. Unless public health policies are substantially altered, Omicron outbreaks in other countries are likely to occur with little warning.

ViralVar: A Web Tool for Multilevel Visualization of SARS-CoV-2 Genomes.

The unprecedented growth of publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence data has increased the demand for effective and accessible SARS-CoV-2 data analysis and visualization tools. The majority of the currently available tools either require computational expertise to deploy them or limit user input to preselected subsets of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. To address these limitations, we developed ViralVar, a publicly available, point-and-click webtool that gives users the freedom to investigate and visualize user-selected subsets of SARS-CoV-2 genomes obtained from the GISAID public database. ViralVar has two primary features that enable: (1) the visualization of the spatiotemporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and (2) a structural/functional analysis of genomic mutations. As proof-of-principle, ViralVar was used to explore the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the USA in pediatric, adult, and elderly populations (n > 1.7 million genomes). Whereas the spatiotemporal dynamics of the variants did not differ between these age groups, several USA-specific sublineages arose relative to the rest of the world. Our development and utilization of ViralVar to provide insights on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA demonstrates the importance of developing accessible tools to facilitate and accelerate the large-scale surveillance of circulating pathogens.

Challenges and Opportunities for Global Genomic Surveillance Strategies in the COVID-19 Era.

Global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance efforts have provided critical data on the ongoing evolution of the virus to inform best practices in clinical care and public health throughout the pandemic. Impactful genomic surveillance strategies generally follow a multi-disciplinary pipeline involving clinical sample collection, viral genotyping, metadata linkage, data reporting, and public health responses. Unfortunately, current limitations in each of these steps have compromised the overall effectiveness of these strategies. Biases from convenience-based sampling methods can obfuscate the true distribution of circulating variants. The lack of standardization in genotyping strategies and bioinformatic expertise can create bottlenecks in data processing and complicate interpretation. Limitations and inconsistencies in clinical and demographic data collection and sharing can slow the compilation and limit the utility of comprehensive datasets. This likewise can complicate data reporting, restricting the availability of timely data. Finally, gaps and delays in the implementation of genomic surveillance data in the public health sphere can prevent officials from formulating effective mitigation strategies to prevent outbreaks. In this review, we outline current SARS-CoV-2 global genomic surveillance methods and assess roadblocks at each step of the pipeline to identify potential solutions. Evaluating the current obstacles that impede effective surveillance can improve both global coordination efforts and pandemic preparedness for future outbreaks.

Incidence and Clinical Characteristics of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection After Vaccination in Children.

The objective of this single-center cohort study was to characterize the frequency, clinical characteristics, and molecular epidemiology of pediatric severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection after vaccination. Between May 15, 2021, and January 1, 2022, 171 children experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection postvaccination, 146 (86%) following the Omicron variant predominance. Outcomes were generally mild and comparable before and after Omicron predominance.

Severity of Illness Caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants of Concern in Children: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Recent COVID-19 surges are attributed to emergence of more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs). The relative severity of VOCs in children is unknown. METHODS: We performed a single-center retrospective cohort study of children ≤18 years old diagnosed with COVID-19 from October 2020-February 2022 and whose SARS-CoV-2 isolate underwent Illumina sequencing. We measured the frequency of five markers of COVID-19 severity. Logistic regression models were fitted to estimate the odds of each severity marker with each VOC. RESULTS: Among 714 children, 471 (66.0%) were infected with a VOC: 96 (13.4%) alpha, 38 (5.3%) gamma, 119 (16.7%) delta, and 215 (30.1%) omicron. High-risk medical conditions and increasing age were independently associated with COVID-19 severity. After adjusting for age, race, ethnicity, high-risk medical conditions, and COVID-19 community incidence, neither alpha, delta, nor omicron was associated with severe COVID-19. Gamma was independently associated with hospitalization (OR 6.7, 95% CI 2.0-22.1); pharmacologic treatment (OR 5.7, 95% CI 1.2-26.8); respiratory support (OR 11.9, 95% CI 2.7-62.4); and severe disease per the WHO Clinical Progression Scale (OR 11.7, 95% CI 2.1-90.5). Upon subgroup analyses, omicron was independently associated with ICU admission and severe disease per the WHO Clinical Progression Scale in children without SARS-CoV-2 immunization or prior COVID-19 infection. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to non-VOC COVID-19, the gamma VOC was independently associated with increased COVID-19 severity, as was omicron in children without SARS-CoV-2 immunization or prior COVID-19 infection. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and prior COVID-19 prevented severe outcomes during the omicron surge.

De novo emergence of SARS-CoV-2 spike mutations in immunosuppressed patients.

BACKGROUND: The continuing evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with decreased susceptibility to neutralizing antibodies is of clinical importance. Several spike mutations associated with immune escape have evolved independently in association with different variants of concern (VOCs). How and when these mutations arise is still unclear. We hypothesized that such mutations might arise in the context of persistent viral replication in immunosuppressed hosts. METHODS: Nasopharyngeal specimens were collected longitudinally from two immunosuppressed patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection. Plasma was collected from these same patients late in disease course. SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequencing was performed to assess the emergence and frequency of mutations over time. Select Spike mutations were assessed for their impact on viral entry and antibody neutralization in vitro. RESULTS: Our sequencing results revealed the intrahost emergence of spike mutations that are associated with circulating VOCs in both immunosuppressed patients (del241-243 and E484Q in one patient, and E484K in the other). These mutations decreased antibody-mediated neutralization of pseudotyped virus particles in cell culture, but also decreased efficiency of spike-mediated cell entry. CONCLUSIONS: These observations demonstrate the de novo emergence of SARS-CoV-2 spike mutations with enhanced immune evasion in immunosuppressed patients with persistent infection. These data suggest one potential mechanism for the evolution of VOCs and emphasize the importance of continued efforts to develop antiviral drugs for suppression of viral replication in hospitalized settings.

Longitudinal Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections Reveals Limited Infectious Virus Shedding and Restricted Tissue Distribution.

Background: The global effort to vaccinate people against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during an ongoing pandemic has raised questions about how vaccine breakthrough infections compare with infections in immunologically naive individuals and the potential for vaccinated individuals to transmit the virus. Methods: We examined viral dynamics and infectious virus shedding through daily longitudinal sampling in 23 adults infected with SARS-CoV-2 at varying stages of vaccination, including 6 fully vaccinated individuals. Results: The durations of both infectious virus shedding and symptoms were significantly reduced in vaccinated individuals compared with unvaccinated individuals. We also observed that breakthrough infections are associated with strong tissue compartmentalization and are only detectable in saliva in some cases. Conclusions: Vaccination shortens the duration of time of high transmission potential, minimizes symptom duration, and may restrict tissue dissemination.

Rapid and Sensitive Detection of Antigen from SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern by a Multivalent Minibinder-Functionalized Nanomechanical Sensor.

New platforms for the rapid and sensitive detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern are urgently needed. Here we report the development of a nanomechanical sensor based on the deflection of a microcantilever capable of detecting the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) glycoprotein antigen using computationally designed multivalent minibinders immobilized on a microcantilever surface. The sensor exhibits rapid (<5 min) detection of the target antigens down to concentrations of 0.05 ng/mL (362 fM) and is more than an order of magnitude more sensitive than an antibody-based cantilever sensor. Validation of the sensor with clinical samples from 33 patients, including 9 patients infected with the Omicron (BA.1) variant observed detection of antigen from nasopharyngeal swabs with cycle threshold (Ct) values as high as 39, suggesting a limit of detection similar to that of the quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). Our findings demonstrate the use of minibinders and nanomechanical sensors for the rapid and sensitive detection of SARS-CoV-2 and potentially other disease markers.

An immunoPET probe to SARS-CoV-2 reveals early infection of the male genital tract in rhesus macaques.

The systemic nature of SARS-CoV-2 infection is highly recognized, but poorly characterized. A non-invasive and unbiased method is needed to clarify whole body spatiotemporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection after transmission. We recently developed a probe based on the anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody CR3022 to study SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis in vivo. Herein, we describe its use in immunoPET to investigate SARS-CoV-2 infection of three rhesus macaques. Using PET/CT imaging of macaques at different times post-SARS-CoV-2 inoculation, we track the 64Cu-labelled CR3022-F(ab’)2 probe targeting the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 to study the dynamics of infection within the respiratory tract and uncover novel sites of infection. Using this method, we uncovered differences in lung pathology between infection with the WA1 isolate and the delta variant, which were readily corroborated through computed tomography scans. The 64Cu-CR3022-probe also demonstrated dynamic changes occurring between 1- and 2-weeks post-infection. Remarkably, a robust signal was seen in the male genital tract (MGT) of all three animals studied. Infection of the MGT was validated by immunofluorescence imaging of infected cells in the testicular and penile tissue and severe pathology was observed in the testes of one animal at 2-weeks post-infection. The results presented here underscore the utility of using immunoPET to study the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection to understand its pathogenicity and discover new anatomical sites of viral replication. We provide direct evidence for SARS-CoV-2 infection of the MGT in rhesus macaques revealing the possible pathologic outcomes of viral replication at these sites.

Assessment of Virological Contributions to COVID-19 Outcomes in a Longitudinal Cohort of Hospitalized Adults.

BACKGROUND: While several demographic and clinical correlates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcome have been identified, their relationship to virological and immunological parameters remains poorly defined. METHODS: To address this, we performed longitudinal collection of nasopharyngeal swabs and blood samples from a cohort of 58 hospitalized adults with COVID-19. Samples were assessed for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load, viral genotype, viral diversity, and antibody titer. Demographic and clinical information, including patient blood tests and several composite measures of disease severity, was extracted from electronic health records. RESULTS: Several factors, including male sex, higher age, higher body mass index, higher 4C Mortality score, and elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels, were associated with intensive care unit admission. Of all measured parameters, only the retrospectively calculated median Deterioration Index score was significantly associated with death. While quantitative polymerase chain reaction cycle threshold (Ct) values and genotype of SARS-CoV-2 were not significantly associated with outcome, Ct value did correlate positively with C-reactive protein levels and negatively with D-dimer, lymphocyte count, and antibody titer. Intrahost viral genetic diversity remained constant through the disease course and resulted in changes in viral genotype in some participants. CONCLUSIONS: Ultimately, these results suggest that worse outcomes are driven by immune dysfunction rather than by viral load and that SARS-CoV-2 evolution in hospital settings is relatively constant over time.

Multiple expansions of globally uncommon SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Nigeria.

Disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance have limited our understanding of the viral population dynamics and may delay identification of globally important variants. Despite being the most populated country in Africa, Nigeria has remained critically under sampled. Here, we report sequences from 378 SARS-CoV-2 isolates collected in Oyo State, Nigeria between July 2020 and August 2021. In early 2021, most isolates belonged to the Alpha "variant of concern" (VOC) or the Eta lineage. Eta outcompeted Alpha in Nigeria and across West Africa, persisting in the region even after expansion of an otherwise rare Delta sub-lineage. Spike protein from the Eta variant conferred increased infectivity and decreased neutralization by convalescent sera in vitro. Phylodynamic reconstructions suggest that Eta originated in West Africa before spreading globally and represented a VOC in early 2021. These results demonstrate a distinct distribution of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Nigeria, and emphasize the need for improved genomic surveillance worldwide.

Serological Markers of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfection.

As public health guidelines throughout the world have relaxed in response to vaccination campaigns against SARS-CoV-2, it is likely that SARS-CoV-2 will remain endemic, fueled by the rise of more infectious SARS-CoV-2 variants. Moreover, in the setting of waning natural and vaccine immunity, reinfections have emerged across the globe, even among previously infected and vaccinated individuals. As such, the ability to detect reexposure to and reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 is a key component for global protection against this virus and, more importantly, against the potential emergence of vaccine escape mutations. Accordingly, there is a strong and continued need for the development and deployment of simple methods to detect emerging hot spots of reinfection to inform targeted pandemic response and containment, including targeted and specific deployment of vaccine booster campaigns. In this study, we identify simple, rapid immune biomarkers of reinfection in rhesus macaques, including IgG3 antibody levels against nucleocapsid and FcγR2A receptor binding activity of anti-RBD antibodies, that are recapitulated in human reinfection cases. As such, this cross-species analysis underscores the potential utility of simple antibody titers and function as price-effective and scalable markers of reinfection to provide increased resolution and resilience against new outbreaks. IMPORTANCE As public health and social distancing guidelines loosen in the setting of waning global natural and vaccine immunity, a deeper understanding of the immunological response to reexposure and reinfection to this highly contagious pathogen is necessary to maintain public health. Viral sequencing analysis provides a robust but unrealistic means to monitor reinfection globally. The identification of scalable pathogen-specific biomarkers of reexposure and reinfection, however, could significantly accelerate our capacity to monitor the spread of the virus through naive and experienced hosts, providing key insights into mechanisms of disease attenuation. Using a nonhuman primate model of controlled SARS-CoV-2 reexposure, we deeply probed the humoral immune response following rechallenge with various doses of viral inocula. We identified virus-specific humoral biomarkers of reinfection, with significant increases in antibody titer and function upon rechallenge across a range of humoral features, including IgG1 to the receptor binding domain of the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 (RBD), IgG3 to the nucleocapsid protein (N), and FcγR2A receptor binding to anti-RBD antibodies. These features not only differentiated primary infection from reexposure and reinfection in monkeys but also were recapitulated in a sequencing-confirmed reinfection patient and in a cohort of putatively reinfected humans that evolved a PCR-positive test in spite of preexisting seropositivity. As such, this cross-species analysis using a controlled primate model and human cohorts reveals increases in antibody titers as promising cross-validated serological markers of reinfection and reexposure.

Development of an In Vivo Probe to Track SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Rhesus Macaques

Infection with the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, results in pneumonia and other respiratory symptoms as well as pathologies at diverse anatomical sites. An outstanding question is whether these diverse pathologies are due to replication of the virus in these anatomical compartments and how and when the virus reaches those sites. To answer these outstanding questions and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection a method for tracking viral spread in vivo is needed. We developed a novel, fluorescently labeled, antibody-based in vivo probe system using the anti-spike monoclonal antibody CR3022 and demonstrated that it could successfully identify sites of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a rhesus macaque model of COVID-19. Our results showed that the fluorescent signal from our antibody-based probe could differentiate whole lungs of macaques infected for 9 days from those infected for 2 or 3 days. Additionally, the probe signal corroborated the frequency and density of infected cells in individual tissue blocks from infected macaques. These results provide proof of concept for the use of in vivo antibody-based probes to study SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in rhesus macaques.

Viral whole-genome sequencing to assess impact of universal masking on SARS-CoV-2 transmission among pediatric healthcare workers.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the impact of universal masking on COVID-19 incidence and putative SARS-CoV-2 transmissions events among children's hospital healthcare workers (HCWs). DESIGN: Quasi-experimental study. SETTING: Single academic free-standing children's hospital. METHODS: We performed whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2- PCR-positive samples collected from HCWs 3 weeks before and 6 weeks after implementing a universal masking policy. Phylogenetic analyses were performed to identify clusters of clonally related SARS-CoV-2 indicative of putative transmission events. We measured COVID-19 incidence, SARS-CoV-2 test positivity rates, and frequency of putative transmission events before and after the masking policy was implemented. RESULTS: HCW COVID-19 incidence and test positivity declined from 14.3 to 4.3 cases per week, and from 18.4% to 9.0%, respectively. Putative transmission events were only identified prior to universal masking. CONCLUSIONS: A universal masking policy was associated with reductions in HCW COVID-19 infections and occupational acquisition of SARS-CoV-2.

Screening Students and Staff for Asymptomatic Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Chicago Schools.

OBJECTIVES: To assess rates of asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) positivity in K-8 schools with risk mitigation procedures in place, and to evaluate SARS-CoV-2 transmission in school and household contacts of these positive individuals. STUDY DESIGN: In this prospective observational study, screening testing for SARS-CoV-2 was performed by oropharyngeal swabbing and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis in students and staff at K-8 private schools in high-risk Chicago ZIP codes. New coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) diagnoses or symptoms among participants, household contacts, and nonparticipants in each school were queried. RESULTS: Among 11 K-8 private schools across 8 Chicago ZIP codes, 468 participants (346 students, 122 staff members) underwent screening testing. At the first school, 17 participants (36%) tested positive, but epidemiologic investigation suggested against in-school transmission. Only 5 participants in the subsequent 10 schools tested positive for an overall 4.7% positivity rate (1.2% excluding school 1). All but 1 positive test among in-person students had high PCR cycle threshold values, suggesting very low SARS-CoV-2 viral loads. In all schools, no additional students, staff, or household contacts reported new diagnoses or symptoms of COVID-19 during the 2 weeks following screening testing. CONCLUSIONS: We identified infrequent asymptomatic COVID-19 in schools in high-risk Chicago communities and did not identify transmission among school staff, students, or their household contacts. These data suggest that COVID-19 mitigation procedures, including masking and physical distancing, are effective in preventing transmission of COVID-19 in schools. These results may inform future strategies for screening testing in K-8 schools.

A clade of SARS-CoV-2 viruses associated with lower viral loads in patient upper airways.

BACKGROUND: The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been accompanied by the emergence of distinct viral clades, though their clinical significance remains unclear. Here, we aimed to investigate the phylogenetic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Chicago, Illinois, and assess their relationship to clinical parameters. METHODS: We performed whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 isolates collected from COVID-19 patients in Chicago in mid-March, 2020. Using these and other publicly available sequences, we performed phylogenetic, phylogeographic, and phylodynamic analyses. Patient data was assessed for correlations between demographic or clinical characteristics and virologic features. FINDINGS: The 88 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences in our study separated into three distinct phylogenetic clades. Clades 1 and 3 were most closely related to viral sequences from New York and Washington state, respectively, with relatively broad distributions across the US. Clade 2 was primarily found in the Chicago area with limited distribution elsewhere. At the time of diagnosis, patients infected with Clade 1 viruses had significantly higher average viral loads in their upper airways relative to patients infected with Clade 2 viruses, independent of disease severity. INTERPRETATION: These results show that multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in the Chicago area in mid-March 2020 that differed in their relative viral loads in patient upper airways. These data suggest that differences in virus genotype can impact viral load and may influence viral spread. FUNDING: Dixon Family Translational Research Award, Northwestern University Clinical and Translational Sciences Institute (NUCATS), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Lurie Comprehensive Cancer Center, Northwestern University Emerging and Re-emerging Pathogens Program.